THE CYCLE OF SOMALI POLITICAL STUPIDITY

By Ismail H. Warsame

In Somali politics, déjà vu is not a coincidence—it’s a governing principle. What you saw yesterday, you’ll see again tomorrow, only with a new set of tired faces pretending to be reformers. The script is older than the Somali Republic itself: clans quarrel, politicians pretend, donors pay, and the people pray.

Two constants define this endless political rerun: Clan and Conflict. Everything else is decorative chaos. Add in the chronic mistrust of politicians and public institutions—born in the ashes of civil war—and you get the perfect Somali cocktail: flattery, fraud, and failure served with a sprinkle of false hope.

Now comes Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the self-appointed “smartest politician” Banadir ever exported. He thought he could charm Ahmed Madoobe with the same tired tricks he used on Sheikh Sharif and Abdul-Aziz “Laftegreen.” But Kismayo wasn’t fooled. Ahmed Madoobe, the survivor-in-chief of Somali power plays, smiled politely while keeping his political dagger under the table.

Hassan Sheikh had to cut short his trip—a premature evacuation of ego. It turns out that Jubaland’s political chessboard doesn’t play by Mogadishu’s recycled scripts. He discovered, perhaps too late, that his usual combination of clan manipulation and sweet talk only works north of Afgooye.

And so, the Cycle of Stupidity continues:

1. The President overestimates himself.

2. The regions resist.

3. Talks collapse.

4. Donors issue statements.

5. Everyone pretends progress was made.

No surprises. No lessons learned. Just the eternal Somali loop of power without purpose—where the past is never past, and the future is always yesterday.

WDM: Talking Truth to Power