By Ismail H. Warsame Warsame Digital Media (WDM) September 8, 2025
To predict Somalia’s future is to navigate a labyrinth of perpetual crisis. This is a nation where reality consistently outpaces even the most pessimistic speculation, where each new “worst-case scenario” is rapidly rendered obsolete by the grim lived experiences of its citizens. While forecasting is perilous, existing trends paint a picture that is not only dark but alarmingly coherent. The trajectory, if unaltered by a miraculous national awakening, points toward a catastrophic climax.
The Illusion of a Capital: Mogadishu’s Slow Strangulation
The notion of Mogadishu as a sovereign capital is becoming a fiction. The city exists in a state of virtual siege, not by a traditional army at its gates, but by an insidious and adaptive extremist insurgency. Al-Shabab, a Taliban-like force perfected through years of resilience, operates with a lethal synthesis of rigid ideology and pragmatic opportunism. It systematically extorts businesses, infiltrates institutions, and governs shadow districts with brutal efficiency, all while tightening a noose around the city’s economic and supply lines.
The response from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has been a masterclass in political theater. Grandly announced “offensives” consistently devolve into fleeting photo-opportunities for officials, yielding no lasting territorial gain or strategic advantage. The Somali National Army (SNA), hamstrung by clan loyalties, corruption, and inadequate support, remains a fragmented and ineffective force. The tragic, undeniable reality is that there are no coherent, unified, or meaningful efforts underway to reverse the tide. Mogadishu is not a bastion of statehood but a precarious island, slowly eroding.
The Architecture of Failure: Political Paralysis and International Divestment
Somalia’s political class has perfected a system of self-sabotage. The foundational model of governance—4.5 power-sharing—has devolved from a necessary compromise into a permanent cage. It incentivizes clan competition over national interest, turning the Federal Parliament into a marketplace for quota disputes rather than a chamber for legislation and oversight. This dysfunction is acutely felt by those outside the center of power. There is a pervasive and damaging perception that non-Hawiye members of the federal Parliament, particularly those hailing from the assertive Federal Member States of Puntland and Jubaland, are treated as poor guests rather than equal partners in governance. This political othering—whether real or perceived—fuels profound resentment and ensures that crucial legislation and national strategies are bogged down in petty disputes and boycotts, rather than being debated on their merit.
The incessant power struggles between the Federal Government and the Federal Member States (FMS) have created a vacuum where no central authority can effectively govern. This political paralysis is met with growing and unmistakable fatigue from the international community. Donors who have poured billions into state-building now see diminishing returns on their investment. The patience of regional allies like Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Gulf States is wearing thin, replaced by a cold, pragmatic calculus. Somalia is rapidly becoming the “permanent project” that the world is no longer willing to fund indefinitely, especially when its leaders appear unwilling to forge a unified path forward.
The Inevitable Conclusion: Two Grim Scenarios
Given this unchecked decay, the endgame is now coming into focus, and it offers two horrifying choices.
1. The Militant Takeover: Left unchecked, Al-Shabab’s methodical campaign will continue. They will not necessarily storm Mogadishu in a dramatic battle; instead, they will suffocate it, gradually rendering the government irrelevant until it collapses under its own weight. South-Central Somalia would fall under a harsh, theocratic rule, reminiscent of the pre-2012 Islamic Courts Union era, but far more entrenched and internationally connected.
However, unlike the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the world—and more importantly, regional powers—will not stand idly by. This leads to the second, and perhaps more likely, scenario.
2. The Re-Occupation and Regionalization of the Conflict: The strategic waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are simply too vital to global commerce and military strategy. No international power—not the United States, Turkey, Egypt, or the Gulf Coalition—will tolerate a hostile force like Al-Shabab (potentially in alliance with or mimicking the Houthis of Yemen) controlling such a critical chokepoint.
The result will not be a UN-sanctioned peacekeeping mission like ATMIS, but a forced, violent re-occupation. This could take the form of a regional coalition or unilateral interventions under the banner of “stabilization,” but it will be driven by hard national security interests, not altruism. The outcome will not be peace. It will be a new chapter of brutal warfare, foreign forces against a guerrilla insurgency, with Somali civilians caught in the crossfire. Sovereignty would become a distant memory, replaced by the reality of a nation partitioned into spheres of influence by foreign powers.
A Choice That Must Be Made
This is the unvarnished future that awaits: either collapse into militant rule or a devastating foreign intervention that sacrifices sovereignty for a brutal, imposed “order.” Neither option offers dignity, prosperity, or self-determination.
The profound tragedy is that this fate is not yet sealed. The power to avert it rests almost entirely with Somalia’s political elites and clan elders. It requires a radical, immediate self-correction: a genuine political truce, the prioritization of national army building over partisan militias, and a unified front against extremism. The Somali people have repeatedly demonstrated breathtaking resilience, but their leaders have consistently squandered it. The clock is not ticking; it is flashing red. The time for slogans is over; the time for action is now, if it is not already too late.
WDM 