The Worsening Security Situation in South-Central Somalia

Introduction
The security landscape in South-Central Somalia has deteriorated alarmingly in recent months, marked by the resurgence of Al-Shabab militants and the Somali government’s faltering response. The fall of Adan Yabaal again, a strategic town in the Middle Shabelle region, to Al-Shabab in late 2025—and reports of Somali National Army (SNA) commanders fleeing the battlefield—underscore a crisis of governance and military capability. This essay examines the roots of the escalating violence, the Somali federal government’s controversial handling of the threat, and the implications for regional stability.
Al-Shabab’s Resurgence and Territorial Ambitions
Al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group active since 2006, has capitalized on Somalia’s political fragmentation to regain control of key territories. Despite decades of counterterrorism efforts by African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM,  ATMIS, now AUSSOM) and U.S.-backed airstrikes, the group dominates rural areas and increasingly encroaches on urban centers. Their tactics—a blend of guerrilla warfare, taxation systems, and ideological appeals—have enabled them to besiege towns like Adan Yabaal, disrupting supply routes to Mogadishu and emboldening claims of encircling the capital.

Government Incompetence and Deflection
Critics argue that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s administration has downplayed the severity of the threat. The loss of Adan Yabaal, a town critical to securing Middle Shabelle, exposed systemic military weaknesses: poor troop morale, inadequate equipment, and leadership failures. The humiliation of an SNA commander reportedly fleeing on foot during the battle epitomizes these institutional cracks. Instead of addressing these issues, government officials have shifted blame, accusing AUSSOM commanders of sympathizing with militants—a move perceived as scapegoating international partners to mask domestic mismanagement.
Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi’s role in deflecting criticism has drawn particular scrutiny. As the regime’s spokesperson on global platforms, Fiqi has framed the crisis as a failure of the international community rather than a product of Somalia’s governance deficits. This rhetoric risks alienating allies whose support remains crucial for financial aid and security assistance.

Humanitarian and Regional Implications
The security collapse has dire humanitarian consequences. Over 3.8 million Somalis are displaced, and Al-Shabab’s blockade tactics restrict aid access, exacerbating famine risks. Meanwhile, the group’s cross-border ambitions threaten regional stability, with Kenya and Ethiopia facing recurrent attacks.

International Community at a Crossroads
The Somali government’s accusations against AUSSOM complicate the already fraught transition, which aims to gradually transfer security responsibilities to Somali forces. However, the SNA’s unreliability and political infighting have stalled this process. The U.S. and EU, key funders of Somalia’s security sector, now demand accountability for their investments, urging reforms to curb corruption and improve military oversight.

Pathways to Stability
A sustainable solution requires a dual approach: robust international support paired with Somali-led governance reforms. Strengthening local governance, integrating clan militias into formal security structures, and addressing grievances that fuel Al-Shabab’s recruitment are critical. The international community must balance pressure for accountability with sustained engagement to prevent state collapse.

Conclusion
The crisis in South-Central Somalia is a stark reminder of the costs of political short-sightedness. President Mohamoud’s administration must confront internal rot rather than externalize blame. Without urgent reforms, Somalia risks descending into another cycle of violence, with devastating repercussions for its people and the Horn of Africa. The window for action is narrowing, but a coordinated strategy prioritizing governance and inclusivity could yet steer the nation toward stability.