The long-standing aspiration for Somaliland’s independence has recently been overshadowed by a growing pattern of regional destabilization and troubling allegations of collusion with extremist groups. Once viewed as a model of relative stability in the Horn of Africa, Somaliland’s territorial ambitions, particularly over the contested SSC-Khatumo region, have resulted in significant political fallout and increased regional isolation.
The Crumbling Claims Over SSC-Khatumo
Somaliland’s territorial claims over SSC-Khatumo (Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn regions) have long been contested by local populations and rival administrations. Recent developments have seen Somaliland’s grip over these regions falter dramatically. Widespread resistance, particularly from the Dhulbahante and Warsangeli clans, has delegitimized Somaliland’s authority in the area. The failure to secure SSC-Khatumo through military means or political dialogue marks a critical blow to Somaliland’s secessionist ambitions and calls into question its ability to function as a viable state across diverse clan territories.
Internal Discontent and Regional Disintegration
Meanwhile, discontent is spreading to other regions under Somaliland’s control. The Awdal region, dominated by the Gadabuursi clan, is experiencing a resurgence of anti-Hargeisa sentiment, with increasing calls for self-determination and alignment with federal Somalia. Similarly, the Issa clan in the far western part of Somaliland maintains stronger ties to neighboring Djibouti than to Hargeisa, further eroding national unity. These fractures reflect the inability of the Somaliland administration to foster inclusive governance and accommodate the diverse aspirations of its constituent regions.
Regional Fallout: Ethiopia and the Berbera Port
Somaliland’s once-promising commercial relationship with Ethiopia, particularly through the Berbera Port, is also deteriorating. Recent hostilities involving Ethiopia’s Somali Region (Region Five) and suspicion around Somaliland’s military posturing have made Ethiopia reassess its strategic partnerships. The viability of Berbera Port as a regional trade hub is being undercut by rising insecurity and mistrust, threatening one of Somaliland’s few economic lifelines.
Alarming Allegations of Extremist Collaboration
Perhaps most concerning are the grave allegations implicating Somaliland authorities in the support of terrorist networks. Intelligence sources and regional actors have accused elements within Somaliland’s leadership of facilitating the movement of ISIS and Al-Shabaab fighters, especially through territory under their control. The Galgala mountains in Puntland have reportedly become a theater of conflict fueled by such movements, with fleeing fighters from Calmiskaad using Somaliland-administered corridors to regroup. Even more alarming are reports that foreign fighters are finding safe passage through Somaliland, and that some Al-Shabaab leadership hail from Somaliland regions.
While these allegations require thorough investigation, the optics are damaging. The perceived support or tolerance for terrorist elements undermines Somaliland’s claims to sovereignty and further alienates potential international supporters. Alleged celebrations by some Somaliland-affiliated political actors over Al-Shabaab victories in south-central Somalia only compound these concerns.
The Path Forward: Countering the Threat
To address these destabilizing trends, a multi-pronged approach is essential:
1. Independent Investigations: The Federal Government of Somalia and international actors must support independent investigations into the alleged collaboration between Somaliland authorities and extremist groups. Transparency is key to either validating or refuting these serious accusations.
2. Regional Cooperation: Somaliland must engage constructively with Puntland, Djibouti, and Ethiopia to restore trust and promote regional stability. This includes intelligence sharing and border security coordination.
3. Internal Dialogue and Federalism: A political solution to Somaliland’s internal fractures requires inclusive dialogue that recognizes the autonomy and aspirations of regions like Awdal and SSC-Khatumo. Federalism may offer a viable path toward decentralization and coexistence under the Somali state.
4. Counterterrorism Efforts: The Somali government, with international partners, must prioritize counterterrorism operations in Galgala and surrounding regions. Disrupting the flow of fighters and resources through Somaliland territory is essential to regional security.
5. Sanctions and Accountability: Should investigations confirm collaboration with terrorist groups, targeted sanctions against implicated Somaliland officials must be considered. Accountability will be a deterrent against future collusion.
Conclusion
The dream of Somaliland independence has lost its moral high ground in the face of regional unrest, rising secessionist sentiments within its own borders, and troubling links to extremist networks. The destabilization attributed to Somaliland authorities poses a grave threat to the peace and security of Somalia and the broader Horn of Africa. Reversing this dangerous trajectory requires firm regional cooperation, international vigilance, and a recommitment to inclusive governance. Only then can Somalia chart a path toward unity and stability.
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 