The deteriorating state of Somalia’s sovereignty and the unchecked interference of foreign powers like the UAE can not be fully understood without examining the failures of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration. Since his re-election in 2022, Mohamud has pursued divisive policies that have weakened national unity, undermined constitutional governance, and created a vacuum exploited by external actors.
1. Violation of the Somali Constitution & Centralization of Power
• Unilateral Decision-Making: Mohamud has repeatedly bypassed parliamentary oversight and ignored the federal structure, concentrating power in the presidency.
• Erosion of Federalism: Instead of fostering cooperation with Federal Member States (FMS), his government has engaged in political coercion, withholding resources and recognition to pressure regional leaders into submission
• Undermining the Provisional Constitution: The president’s refusal to implement key constitutional provisions—particularly on power-sharing and state formation—has fueled instability and given regional leaders justification to seek foreign patrons like the UAE.
2. Sabotaging National Reconciliation
• Exclusionary Politics: Rather than pursuing inclusive dialogue, Mohamud has marginalized opposition voices, including political factions, clan leaders, and civil society.
• Politicization of Security: The fight against Al-Shabaab has been used as a tool to sideline rivals rather than unify the country, leading to fragmented military operations and reliance on foreign-backed militias.
• Failure to Resolve Somaliland and Puntland Dispute: Instead of engaging in meaningful talks with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland, his administration has alternated between verbal provocations, military threats and neglect, pushing parts of the country further into the Ethiopia and UAE’s orbits.
3. Transactional Foreign Policy & Surrendering Sovereignty
• Dependence on Turkey & Qatar: While resisting UAE and Ethiopian influence, Mohamud has over-relied Turkey for military and political support, creating a new form of dependency
• The Turkey-Somalia defence pact (2024), which grants Ankara maritime security control, was negotiated without broad consensus, raising concerns about sovereignty.
• Neglecting Somali Stakeholders: Key decisions on foreign engagements (ports, bases, security, and petroleum deals) are made without consulting Federal Member States, deepening distrust.
• Opportunistic Shifts: His government’s sudden policy reversals—such as expelling UAE officials in 2018 (under Farmajo), then seeking UAE mediation later—show a lack of strategic consistency.
4. Consequences: A Divided Somalia Vulnerable to Foreign Exploitation
• Empowering Regional Warlords: By alienating Federal Member States, Mohamud has pushed leaders like Puntland’s Said Deni and Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe to seek UAE support, further fracturing Somalia.
• Loss of Territorial Control: The federal government’s weakened legitimacy has allowed Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland to strengthen their autonomy with foreign backing.
• Foreign Military Entrenchment: The UAE, Turkey, and Ethiopia have all expanded their military presence in Somalia, turning the country into a proxy battleground.
Conclusion: A Leadership Crisis Fueling Foreign Interference
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s authoritarian tendencies, rejection of inclusive governance, and short-term transactional diplomacy have exacerbated Somalia’s vulnerability to foreign manipulation. His failure to uphold the constitution, reconcile with Federal Member States, and pursue a cohesive national strategy has:
• Pushed regional leaders into the arms of the UAE and others.
• Made Somalia a playground for competing foreign powers.
• Diminished prospects for lasting peace and sovereignty.
Until Somalia’s leadership returns to genuine power-sharing, constitutional rule, and independent foreign policy, the country will remain at the mercy of external forces—with the UAE’s expanding influence being just one symptom of a deeper governance crisis. However, no one now believes that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is capable of fixing this policy quagmire of his own making. In other words, he is done politically and can not be redeemed.
[End of Ramadan. Eid Mubarak!]
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 