Security Update & Strategic Forecast | 26 March 2025
Prepared by Warsame Digital Media (WDM)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The security situation in Somalia remains critically volatile as of 26 March 2025, marked by Al-Shabaab’s territorial gains in Middle Shabelle, direct threats to Mogadishu’s security perimeters, and sustained U.S. airstrikes against ISIS in Puntland. Immediate risks include large-scale insurgent attacks in urban centers, strategic insurgent regrouping, and deepening humanitarian strain.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Key Flashpoints
• Middle & Lower Shabelle: Al-Shabaab has seized Masajid Ali Guduud and Gelgub villages, exploiting tactical withdrawals by Somali forces.
• Puntland: U.S. airstrikes target ISIS in Al Miskaad Mountains, while Puntland forces engage militants amid rising foreign fighter presence.
• Bay & Bakool: Significant insurgent movements suggest resource mobilization and potential offensives.
Critical Developments
LocationEventImpactMasajidAli GuduudAl-Shabaab VBIED + RPG assault overran SNA/local militias (11+ KIA, POWs taken).High – Threatens Mogadishu’s northern flank.Gelgub Village Abandoned by Somali Special Forces (SSF), now under insurgent control.Moderate-High – Exposes weak defensive cohesion.Al Miskaad Mountains U.S. strikes hit ISIS positions; Puntland clashes ongoing.Moderate – Disrupts ISIS but risks retaliation.
2. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Immediate Threats (Next 72H)
✔ High Risk:
• Mogadishu VBIED/assaults (Elasha Biyaha, Lafole at heightened risk).
• Al-Shabaab checkpoint expansion near city outskirts.
• Displacement surges straining humanitarian response.
✔ Moderate Risk:
• ISIS retaliatory strikes in Puntland.
• Government counteroffensive in Middle Shabelle (contingent on reinforcements).
Insurgent Tactical Shifts
• Asymmetric warfare escalation: Targeted assassinations, IEDs, urban infiltration.
• Strategic relocation to Bay & Bakool signals resource consolidation.
3. MILITARY & SECURITY RESPONSE
Ongoing Operations
• SNA/AUSSOM: Reinforcing Jannaale-Afgooye axis (Danab/Gorgor units deployed).
• U.S./Coalition: Sustained drone strikes (ISR focus) against ISIS & Al-Shabaab.
• Local Counter-IED: Priority on Mogadishu-Baidoa supply routes.
Recommended Actions
• Urgent: Secure Nur Dugle to prevent further Al-Shabaab advances.
• Intel Surge: HUMINT/SIGINT to track insurgent movements in Bay/Bakool.
• Cross-border coordination: Kenyan/Ethiopian forces to block militant flow.
4. ASSESSMENT & FORECAST (see item 4 below).

Projected Scenarios
• Most likely: Al-Shabaab presses toward Afgooye Corridor, testing SNA defenses.
• High-Impact/Low-Probability: Full insurgent assault on Mogadishu’s outskirts.
5. CONCLUSION
The Somali government and allies must prioritize:
• Rapid territorial recapture in Middle Shabelle.
• Urban counterterrorism ops to preempt Mogadishu attacks.
• Humanitarian corridor security to mitigate displacement crises.
Failure to act decisively risks ceding strategic momentum to insurgents.
// END REPORT //
Prepared by: WDM Senior Analyst (Mogadishu).

SECURITY UPDATE & STRATEGIC FORECAST

26 March 2025
Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Al Miskaad Mountains

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

The security situation in Somalia as of 26 March 2025 is critically volatile, with significant Al- Shabaab territorial gains and intensified military engagements. Notably, Al-Shabaab has captured key strategic locations in Middle Shabelle, directly threatening Mogadishu’s security, while U.S. forces continue airstrikes targeting ISIS strongholds in Puntland’s Al Miskaad Mountains.

2. KEY DEVELOPMENTS

2.1. Strategic Al-Shabaab Gains in Middle Shabelle

• MasajidAli Guduud Village (26 March, approx. 0510 hrs)
  Al-Shabaab militants launched a coordinated attack from multiple directions,
  initiated by a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) and sustained rocket-propelled grenade (B9) fire. Following intense combat against Warsangali Ma’awisley forces, Al-Shabaab successfully seized control of MasajidAli Guduud
  village and its surrounding areas. This engagement resulted in significant casualties and disrupted local security operations.
• The loss resulted in substantial casualties among Somali National Army (SNA) and local militias, with at least 11 confirmed deaths, numerous injuries, and prisoners taken by
  insurgents.
• Gelgub Village (25 March, approx. 2000 hrs):
  Al-Shabaab forces took control of Gelgub village without resistance after Somali Special Forces (SSF) from the Abgaal, Agon Yare community conducted a tactical withdrawal
  towards Nur Dugle village. The abandonment of the village highlights vulnerabilities in local security frameworks, potentially facilitating further Al-Shabaab advances.

2.2. Reinforcement and Tactical Movement

• Following setbacks in Middle Shabelle, hundreds of Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly moved to Bay and Bakool regions, prompting concerns of regrouping and resource accumulation.
• Increased insurgent activity in Area 7, highlighting potential strategic shifts in operational deployments and resource mobilization by Al-Shabaab.

2.3. ISIS Operations and U.S. Countermeasures in Al Miskaad Mountains

• U.S. airstrikes on ISIS positions in Miiraale Valley targeted militant concentrations, aiming to disrupt their operations in the rugged Al Miskaad terrain.
• Continuous engagements between Puntland forces and ISIS militants have led to
  multiple casualties, with an increased presence of foreign fighters raising operational threats.

1. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

3.1. Immediate Operational Risks

• Elevated threat of large-scale attacks within Mogadishu, including VBIEDs and coordinated insurgent assaults.
• Increased risk of insurgent infiltration in urban and semi-urban districts of Mogadishu due to compromised security corridors.

3.2. Projected Insurgent Tactics

• Al-Shabaab likely to escalate asymmetric warfare tactics, focusing on targeted assassinations, sabotage, and urban terrorism.
• Potential strategic shift indicated by insurgent relocations to Bay and Bakool regions, suggesting intensified resource and operational planning.

3.3 Possible Scenarios (Next 24-72 Hours)

Al-Shabaab consolidates territorial control in Middle Shabelle

High
Intensified insurgent attacks and increased difficulty for government forces to regain
control.

Federal forces launch coordinated
counteroffensive operations in Middle Shabelle

Moderate
Possible if rapid mobilization and strategic reinforcement occur from Mogadishu and nearby military bases.

Insurgent IED and suicide attacks escalate within Mogadishu
High
Increased threat to civilian populations and critical government infrastructure.

Al-Shabaab conducts targeted
assassinations against key figures
High
Destabilizes government command
structures and operational efficiency.

Displacement surge due to
heightened military engagements
High
Strains humanitarian resources, potentially increasing internal instability.

ISIS retaliatory strikes in Puntland
Moderate
Increased regional security burden and potential civilian casualties.

Clashes intensify in Bay and Bakool regions
High
Diversion of government military resources away from primary fronts.

Notes

VBIED attacks in Mogadishu
High
Severe

Insurgents maintain open access to logistical routes

Expansion of Al-Shabaab
checkpoints around Mogadishu outskirts

High

Already established presence near strategic suburbs

Effective government-led
counteroffensive in Middle
Shabelle

Moderate

Dependent on availability of forces from Jannaale and enhanced ISR capabilities

Targeted assassinations by Al- Shabaab
High

Aimed at undermining government morale and operational capacity

Increased humanitarian crisis from displacement

High

Compounding existing humanitarian crises in Mogadishu and surrounding areas

Retaliatory ISIS attacks in
Puntland
Moderate

Likely in response to ongoing U.S. airstrikes

Resource competition in Bay and Bakool leading to internal clashes
High

Driven by Al-Shabaab’s need for supplies and reinforcements

4. MILITARY & SECURITY RESPONSE

4.1. Immediate Military Actions

• Ongoing reinforcement and stabilization of key locations around Jannaale and Afgooye with elite units (Danab, Gorgor).
• Rapid-response deployments in vulnerable suburbs like Elasha Biyaha and Lafole to counter insurgent penetration.
• Sustained airstrikes and drone surveillance against both Al-Shabaab and ISIS strongholds to degrade militant capabilities.

4.2. Intelligence and Tactical Recommendations

• Enhanced ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) operations for real-time monitoring of insurgent activities and strategic repositioning.
• Strengthened counter-IED operations along primary routes to mitigate insurgent threats.
• Reinforce local intelligence networks to proactively disrupt insurgent planning and logistical operations.

4.3. Strategic Cooperation

• Ongoing joint operations with U.S., Turkish, and UAE security partners, focusing on intelligence and air support.
• Enhanced regional cooperation with Kenyan and Ethiopian forces to block insurgent movements across borders.

1. ASSESSMENT & FORECAST

5.1. Immediate (26-28 March)

• High likelihood of continued insurgent assaults, particularly around Mogadishu and Middle Shabelle.
• Increased urgency for government and allied forces to stabilize lost territories and secure vulnerable infrastructures.
  5.2. Short-Term (29 March-2 April)
• Persistent risk of insurgent regrouping and consolidation in Bay and Bakool, possibly leading to renewed offensives.
• Anticipated rise in civilian displacement, exacerbating humanitarian challenges and further complicating security operations.

1. CONCLUSION

The rapidly evolving security landscape requires swift and decisive military actions and enhanced coordination between Somali and international forces. The recapture of strategic locations, ongoing suppression of insurgent capabilities through airstrikes, and heightened vigilance in urban security are essential to reversing recent setbacks. Immediate and sustained security responses are crucial to regaining territorial integrity and ensuring long-term stability.

Prepared by
Senior Analyst within the foreign security industry based in Mogadishu [security leaks].
Confidential