Introduction
Weak leadership, corruption, and the neglect of national priorities have historically led to the collapse of states and the rise of violent extremism. Today, Somalia—particularly regions like Puntland—serves as a stark example of how governance failures create openings for groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS. This newsletter examines the root causes of systemic breakdowns, their consequences, and what can be learned from history to prevent further destabilization.
Why Do States Fail? Key Factors
1. Leadership Without Vision
When leaders abandon their constitutional duties—such as ensuring security, justice, and national cohesion—chaos follow. In Somalia, political infighting, clan-based favouritism, and a lack of unified governance have allowed extremist groups to thrive.
• Example: Puntland’s internal divisions over elections and resource-sharing have weakened its ability to combat Al-Shabaab effectively.
• Historical Parallel: The fall of Siad Barre’s regime (1991) was triggered by centralized corruption and exclusionary politics, leading to decades of civil war.
2. The Federalism Dilemma
Somalia’s federal system was meant to empower regions, but poor implementation has fueled distrust between Mogadishu and federal states. Instead of unity, there is constant competition over resources and authority.
• Result: Policy paralysis, delayed military offensives against Al-Shabaab, and disillusionment among citizens.
• Global Lesson: Similar federal failures contributed to Yugoslavia’s violent breakup in the 1990s.
3. Corruption and Injustice – Fueling Extremism
When leaders prioritize personal wealth over public welfare, citizens lose faith in the state. Extremist groups exploit this by offering alternate governance (e.g., Sharia courts, dispute resolution).
• Somalia’s Case: Misused aid money, diverted security funds, and clan-based discrimination push marginalized youth toward Al-Shabaab.
• Broader Trend: The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan was partly due to the Ghani government’s corruption and inefficiency.
Consequences of Neglect
• Expansion of Extremism: Al-Shabaab controls large rural areas and extracts “taxes” even in government-held zones.
• Fragmentation: Puntland and Somaliland increasingly act independently, risking Somalia’s territorial integrity.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Displacement, famine, and lack of services worsen as governance collapses.
Lessons from History
History shows that empires and nations crumble when leaders ignore pressing challenges:
• Ottoman Empire: Corruption and refusal to reform led to its disintegration.
• Libya (2011): Gaddafi’s authoritarian kleptocracy triggered state collapse.
• Soviet Union (1991): Elite self-interest and economic mismanagement caused systemic failure.
Somalia must learn from these examples—or risk further disintegration.
Pathways to Recovery
• Inclusive Leadership: Genuine power-sharing beyond clan lines.
• Security Reforms: Professionalize armies, cut corruption in defence spending.
• Accountable Federalism: Clear roles for FGS and states to avoid conflicts.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Independent audits of aid and revenue.
• Grassroots Reconciliation: Address local grievances to undercut extremist recruitment.
Final Thoughts
Somalia’s survival depends on leaders choosing national unity over personal gain. Without urgent reforms, the cycle of extremism and state failure will continue—not just in Somalia but in other fragile states facing similar threats.
Call to Action: Accountability begins with civic engagement. Support transparency, demand better governance, and learn from history—before it repeats.

By Ismail Warsame/WDM
March 24, 2025

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