The perception of Turkey as an existential threat to Somalia’s survival as a united sovereign state stems from complex regional rivalries and internal divisions exacerbated by foreign interference. Let us dive into these geopolitical issues:
1. Turkey’s Expanding Influence
- Military Presence: Turkey operates its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, trains Somali troops, and provides security support. While this strengthens the federal government, it risks creating dependency and centralizing power, alienating regional states.
- Economic and Political Engagement: Turkey invests in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, fostering goodwill. However, critics argue such ties could lead to debt dependency or unequal agreements, potentially undermining sovereignty.
2. Regional Rivalries and Proxy Dynamics
- Turkey-Qatar vs. UAE-Ethiopia:
- Turkey and Qatar back the Somali federal government, aligning with President Mohamud’s administration.
- UAE and Ethiopia support regional actors (e.g., Somaliland, Puntland) and oppose centralization, fueling federal-state tensions. UAE’s port deals in Somaliland (Berbera) and Ethiopia’s historical interventions exacerbate fragmentation risks.
- Egypt’s Role: Egypt counters Ethiopian influence (e.g., Nile River disputes) by supporting Somalia, adding another layer to the regional power struggle.
3. Internal Divisions
- Federal vs. Regional Tensions: Foreign backing deepens mistrust between Mogadishu and regional states. For example, Somaliland’s UAE ties and Puntland’s resistance to central authority challenge unity.
- Proxy Conflicts: Competing foreign agendas risk turning Somalia into a battleground, destabilizing governance and empowering factions that prioritize external interests over national cohesion.
4. Existential Risks
- Sovereignty Erosion: Overreliance on external actors weakens domestic institutions. For instance, Turkey’s military role may overshadow Somali-led security solutions.
- Fragmentation: External support for secessionist movements (e.g., Somaliland) or autonomous regions threatens territorial integrity. The UAE-Ethiopia axis vs. Turkey-Qatar-Egypt rivalry could Balkanize Somalia.
Counterarguments and Nuances
- Stability vs. Dependency: Turkish aid has provided critical infrastructure and counterterrorism support, which some Somalis welcome. The threat lies not in Turkey alone but in uncoordinated multipolar interference.
- Somalia’s Agency: Somali leaders navigate these rivalries to secure resources, but internal corruption and governance failures also contribute to vulnerability.
Conclusion
Turkey’s role is part of a broader pattern where regional powers exploit Somalia’s fragility for strategic gains. The existential threat arises from the cumulative effect of competing foreign interests fragmenting national unity, undermining state-building, and perpetuating dependency. Somalia’s survival as a united state depends on balancing external engagements with inclusive governance and reducing elite reliance on foreign patrons.
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 