The completion of Puntland’s military operation against ISIS in the Cal-Miskaat mountains marks a critical juncture. To consolidate gains, prevent resurgence, and bring remaining leaders like Abdulkadir Mumin to justice, Puntland should adopt the following best practices, informed by counterterrorism strategies globally and regionally:
1. Secure Cleared Territories
- Maintain a security footprint: Deploy forces to hold recaptured areas (bases, caves, villages) to deter ISIS reinfiltration. Establish checkpoints, patrols, and mobile units to monitor movement.
- Leverage technology: Use drones, satellite imagery, and motion sensors to surveil remote mountain areas and coastal zones, where fleeing fighters might regroup.
- Block escape routes: Coordinate with neighboring regions (e.g., Somaliland, Galmudug) and international partners (e.g., EU Naval Force, US AFRICOM) to enforce land, air, and maritime blockades.
2. Intelligence-Driven Manhunt for Leaders
- Human intelligence (HUMINT): Engage local communities to gather tips on ISIS leaders’ whereabouts. Offer protected anonymity and incentives (e.g., rewards) for credible information.
- Electronic surveillance: Monitor communication networks (e.g., phones, radios) used by ISIS remnants. Collaborate with international agencies (e.g., INTERPOL, CIA) to track financial flows or encrypted messaging.
- Targeted raids: Use specialized units (e.g., PDF commandos) for precision strikes based on actionable intelligence to avoid civilian casualties.
3. Community Engagement and Reconciliation
- Address grievances: Partner with clans, elders, and religious leaders to resolve local disputes (e.g., resource access, land rights) that ISIS exploited for recruitment.
- Humanitarian aid: Provide immediate relief (food, medicine, shelter) to displaced civilians to build trust and counter ISIS propaganda about government neglect.
- Counter-radicalization programs: Launch deradicalization initiatives for former ISIS recruits and their families, focusing on education, vocational training, and psychosocial support.
4. Strengthen Governance and Development
- Restore services: Rebuild infrastructure (schools, hospitals, water sources) in liberated areas to demonstrate tangible benefits of government control.
- Economic opportunities: Create jobs for youth through public works programs (e.g., road construction, agriculture) to reduce vulnerability to extremist recruitment.
- Local governance: Appoint credible administrators (preferably locals) to manage recaptured zones, ensuring fair representation and accountability.
5. Regional and International Cooperation
Cross-border collaboration: Share intelligence with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Yemen to disrupt ISIS smuggling routes or safe havens.
International support: Seek funding and training from partners (e.g., UAE, UN) to build capacity in intelligence, logistics, and community policing.
6. Legal and Judicial Frameworks
- Prosecute captured fighters: Establish transparent, fair trials for ISIS detainees to legitimize counterterrorism efforts and deter future recruitment. Use evidence from seized ISIS materials (documents, videos) to build cases.
- Sanction facilitators: Work with the UN Security Council to impose travel bans and asset freezes on ISIS-linked individuals and businesses.
7. Counter-Ideological Campaigns
- Religious outreach: Partner with moderate clerics to challenge ISIS’s extremist interpretations of Islam through mosque sermons, radio programs, and social media.
- Media strategy: Publicize ISIS’s defeats (e.g., destroyed bases, surrendered fighters) to undermine its image as an invincible “caliphate.”
8. Continuous Assessment and Adaptation
- Monitor threats: Establish early-warning systems to detect ISIS attempts to regroup, such as small-scale attacks or propaganda resurgence.
- Evaluate operations: Conduct after-action reviews to identify gaps (e.g., leadership evasion, civilian harm) and adjust tactics.
Key Risks to Mitigate
- Civilian harm: Avoid heavy-handed tactics that alienate communities. Train PDF forces in international humanitarian law (IHL).
- Over-reliance on militarization: Pair security operations with governance and development to address root causes of extremism.
- Leadership vacuums: If Mumin is killed or captured, anticipate ISIS attempts to appoint successors. Preemptively target mid-level commanders.
Conclusion
The “best practice” approach combines security, governance, and community trust to transform short-term military gains into lasting stability. Neutralizing leaders like Mumin requires patience, precision, and partnerships, but Puntland’s success will ultimately depend on its ability to offer civilians a credible alternative to extremism.
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 