Comprehensive Analysis and Expansion of Puntland’s Counter-ISIS Strategy in the Cal-Miskat Mountains

By Jama Haji Warsame, Puntland State, Somalia

Introduction
Puntland’s battle against ISIS in the Cal-Miskat Mountain Range is a pivotal effort to stabilize Somalia and curb regional extremism. While the original reports outline a strategic framework, a deeper dive into specific challenges, stakeholder dynamics, and innovative solutions is essential for a robust policy response.

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Short-Term Security Challenges: Context and Data

1. Tactical Adaptations by ISIS:
   • ISIS has historically employed hit-and-run tactics in Somalia’s rugged terrain. For instance, in 2022, militants used similar strategies in the Golis Mountains, causing prolonged skirmishes. The use of IEDs has surged, with over 50 incidents reported in Puntland in 2023 alone, complicating troop movements and endangering civilians.
   • Humanitarian Impact: The UN estimates 30,000 civilians have been displaced since operations began, straining resources in cities like Bosaso. Organizations like the Somali Red Crescent are providing aid, but funding gaps exceed $15 million.
   • Financial Strain: Puntland’s annual security budget is 25 million dollars, yet counter−ISIS operations consume 4010 million dollars, the stabilization package, remains critical but insufficient.

Long-Term Consequences: Lessons from History

• Security Vacuum: The 2017 withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from central Somalia led to Al-Shabab’s resurgence. Puntland must avoid this by pre-positioning trained local forces in liberated areas.
• Economic Stagnation: The fishing and livestock sectors, contributing 60% of Puntland’s GDP, face disruption. Unemployment among youth (over 70%) heightens vulnerability to radicalization.
• Regional Spillover: ISIS affiliates in Mozambique and the DRC demonstrate the group’s capacity to exploit governance gaps. Cross-border intelligence-sharing with Kenya and Ethiopia is vital.

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Stakeholder Roles: Collaboration and Challenges

• Local Leaders: In Somaliland, clan-led peace councils reduced intercommunal violence by 50% in 2020. Replicating this model could enhance trust in Puntland.
• Federal Government Tensions: Puntland’s boycott of Somalia’s National Security Council in 2023 over resource-sharing disputes risks fragmenting counterterrorism efforts. Mediation by the AU or IGAD is critical.
• International Partners: The U.S. AFRICOM provides drone surveillance and occasional airstrikes, while UAE trains PMPF troops. The UAE’s port investments in Bosaso could be further leveraged for more economic-security linkages.

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Post-Conflict Engagement: Innovative Solutions

1. Rehabilitation Programs:
   • Nigeria’s “Operation Safe Corridor” DE radicalized 2,000 Boko Haram fighters via psychosocial support. Puntland could partner with UNICEF to replicate this, focusing on vocational training in agriculture.
2. Infrastructure Development:
   • Prioritize towns-Cal-Miskat road projects to enhance market access and security mobility. Mobile health clinics piloted in Galmudug, reduced maternal mortality by 30%, and could be expanded.
3. Gender-Inclusive Strategies:
   • Include women in community policing, as seen in Kenya’s “Nyumba Kumi” initiative, which improved local intelligence by 40%.
4. Environmental Considerations:
   • Mine-clearance efforts must integrate environmental NGOs to restore grazing lands. The HALO Trust’s work in Somaliland offers a blueprint.

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The Way Forward: Integrated Strategies

• Phased Governance Rollout: Within 6 months of liberation, mobile administration units (MAUs) could be deployed to provide basic services, building on lessons from the Somali Regional State in Ethiopia.
• Economic Revitalization: Partner with the World Bank’s Somalia Urban Resilience Project to fund youth entrepreneurship in Bosaso, targeting sectors like renewable energy and digital services.
• International Coordination: Establish a “Cal-Miskat Stabilization Coalition” with the AU, EU, and Gulf states, modeled on the Global Coalition Against Daesh, to pool resources and intelligence.

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Conclusion
Puntland’s success hinges on transcending military action to embrace holistic governance, economic inclusivity, and regional cooperation. By integrating lessons from global counterinsurgency efforts and addressing gaps in gender and environmental policy, Puntland can transform Cal-Miskat into a beacon of resilience, deterring extremism through sustainable development. The international community must act decisively, recognizing that stability in Puntland is a linchpin for regional security.