Day: August 27, 2022

WHY DID SOMALI STATE FAILED?

That question was raised by one of us in a group discussion tonight at teatable in Garowe, Puntland. Everyone expressed his take on that colossal Somali tragedy. The consensus was that Somali state failed due to one man-rule. In other words, the rise of Madax-Ka-Nool is the root cause of Somalia’s collapse. Did we learn anything from this experience?, asked one man. Nothing, responded another. Is there a guarantee that it won’t fail again?, asked 3rd man. No, you won’t get different result from repeating the same experience, volunteered to the debate yet another man.

The conversation was as enlightening as it gets. But what was more exciting was the understanding that since some past and present leaders of the Federal Government and Federal Member States have no capacity or resources to act Siyad Barre, at least this weakness combined with Federal system are deterrent against dictatorship, but for how long? The current problem though lies in leaders of mini-states have created their own enclaves to act as mini-despots in their own right – again one man-rule in a much smaller scale. It means the sum total of the leaders of the Federal Government and FMS amount to a system of despotism in Somalia – an unintended outcome of federalism.

How to come out of this political quagmire? Did you see workshops and training on governance by subject-matter experts in Somalia? But do despots need such transfer of knowledge to the general public and government personnel? Of course not. A vicious cycle sets in which leads to the philosophy hardest question of which was created first, chicken or the egg.

Where does the rule of law fit into all of those? How about independent body of legislators? How does a country call itself democracy in the absence of free and fair elections? We must be all kidding ourselves.

The oil and gas reserve certificate handing over ceremony at the ministry of Mines and Petroleum

Addis Abeba – The Ministry of Mines & Petroleum today received the first gas reserves certificate following the completion of a four month study verifying the extent of oil and natural gas reserves in Ethiopia and how to extract them. The study document revealed the the presence of seven trillion cubic feet (TCF) in the Ogaden Basin, located in Somali regional state.

The certificate was handed over to Takele Uma, Minister of Mines and Petroleum, by the American company Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc (NSAI), American based petroleum property analysis and consulting firm with offices in Dallas and Houston,Texas, which conducted the study.

Speaking at the handing over ceremony of the document, presence of the new study helps to create a system of accountability, the Minister said, adding works were underway to materialize the study into practice.

“This document is a confirmation certificate of Ethiopia’s natural gas volume and economic viability. With this certificate, we can invite companies with technological, financial and investment potential at the international level. It also empowers the government’s bargaining power,” Takele said.

Minister Takele further said that in the past, it was only known that that oil and natural gas reserves existed in Ethiopia, but not the amount. “I believe it [the certificate] will also be a good wake up call to the companies that are holding our wealth captive with misinformation.”

It is to be recalled that in March this year, the Ministry issued a list of conditions to be met by Chinese owned POLY-GCL Petroleum Group Holding Limited, related to its years of activities in the Ogaden Basin. The Ministry warned the company that failure to comply with the ultimatum will result in the “termination of the PPSAs… without a need for further notice.”

The letter, seen by Addis Standard, says that the Ministry is “convinced that POLY-GCL failed to maintain the required financial capability and it is necessary to take corrective measures to that effect.” Accordingly, the Ministry set three ultimatums to be met by the petroleum group.

However, the Minister did not mention the names of companies in his remark today. In December 2021, the ministry had donated 50 million birr that it said was collected from mining and oil companies operating in the Somali regional state to the regional president Mustafe Omer. The money was earmarked to build infrastructure facilities in the region, including schools and health facilities.

In October 2019, Dr Kuang Tutlan, then State Minister of Mines & Petroleum announced a new formula which was being devised outlining revenue share between the federal government and regional states where oil exploration incomes are generated from. According to Dr. Kunag, the revenue share formula will see 50% share for the federal government and the remaining 50% will be disbursed to a given regional state where the resource is found.

Out of the 50% revenue to be disbursed for a given region where the resource is found, 10% of it will be allocated for the specific area where the resources is found, while the remaining 40% of it will be for other parts of the region including the specific area where resource is found. Out of the 50% federal revenue, the 25% will be disbursed to other regional states, Dr Kuang Tutlan said at the time. It is not clear if the formula was implemented since.

WRITTEN BY ADDIS STANDARD

UPDATE ON THE GAROWE TALKS BETWEEN FGS AND PL

Tough negotiations have been going on in Garowe, Puntland, between the two sides for 3rd straight day. There are sticking points that have a long history of Puntland complaints to the Federal Government on unsatisfactory working relationships and cooperation, lack of common vision for security architecture, absence of sound public policy on equitable resources sharing, petroleum issues, education, ports development, diplomatic postings, among other things, and preparations for the forthcoming National Consultative Conference. Observers said the two parties are close to bridge the gap in next one or two sessions before Federal President leaves town.

Stay tuned for further updates.

Post Script and updates after arrival HSM:

Since Somalia is governed by Madax-ka-Nools, Garowe talks are mainly being conducted by presidents HSM and Deni. As talks got even harder amid earnest desire of HSM to strike a deal with PL as a starting point to consensus-building with FMS as he feels pressure from the International Community, HSM is reported last night to have retired to his room earlier, visibly moody. President Deni had opted for consulting with his three close ministers: Interior Minister, Dabancad, Finance Minister, Hassan Shire Abgaal and Water and Energy Minister, Caarshe. These ministers have advised PL flexibility with HSM.

Accompanying President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in his Puntland State visit were a number of his advisers of Puntland origin. In the past when lived in Puntland these advisers were active members of the society. Once recruited by the offices of Federal President and Prime Minister these advisers seemed to have run out of gas. Once they arrived Garowe with the President, they seem to have been left alone to take a short vacation and chit-chat with their former colleagues in town.

As Presidents HSM & Deni are close to bridge the gap of difference in their relationships, and as officials from both sides were excluded from the two men’s closed-door conversations, tonight they decided to invite some of their officials aides to dinner at PL presidency. Discreet Signals coming from Deni’s quarters indicate that they were planning to convene in Garowe a conference of the National Consultative Council (Forum), the Federal Member States. Another indication they were close to understanding on issues secretly discussed in Garowe Summit. Some of the leaders of FMS aren’t in good terms with the Federal Government as a political fallout from the recent Presidential Race in Mogadishu. It was needed to bring them back together under the auspices of the Prime Minister.

From now on, what we expect from Garowe Summit is the Communique. Pay attention to the wording used with regards to some of sensive issues discussed as other Federal Member States are monitoring the substance and outcome of the HSM-Deni Talks.

As expected today, HSM was escorted to tour important PL premises like ministries and bank. He was accompanied by Pl President Deni. HSM and members of his delegation looked impressed by the peace and stability residents of the State were enjoying, despite the fact that Puntland was under-performing after 24 years of statehood.

HSM plans to have a conversation with Puntland civil society tonight before he leaves for Mogadishu tomorrow. It is anticipated that the two sides will issue a joint statement on Garowe Talks to calm down public discomfort with regards to the closed-door negotiation style by mainly two presidents

In principle, an understanding has been reached to strengthen working relationships between the Federal Government and Federal Member State of Puntland. Counterpart ministries and agencies should be working together on federal fashion. Puntland would help in improving inter-state and inter-regional cooperation. We haven’t seen yet press statement or communique to reflect on the articles of any deal struck

Federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has left Garowe for Mogadishu today, having spent four days in Puntland, while he deliberated most of his time on private and non-stop closed-door conversations with Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni, isolated at Presidency. No expected press statement or communique ever appeared after the conclusion of the Summit Talks. Only a courtesy audience was offered last night to some titled elders. HSM’s visit to Puntland State wasn’t felt beyond President Deni HQ. Substance of was privately discussed between the two men remains a mystery as far as Puntland general public is concerned. In comparison, the visit by Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo to Puntland towards the end of his term was more impactful here.