HSM’S ELECTION CAMPAIGN PROMISES BROKEN

“XASAN SHIIKH MAXAMUUD INTUU YAQAANAY WAA DHAAFTAY” (Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is doing more than he could handle).

“Wada Ogool” (Governing by Consensus) and “Soomaali Wada Heshiis ah, Dunidana Heshiis la ah” (Somalis in agreement with themselves and with the world community) were big slogans and promises President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud repeatedly uttered during his presidential campaign for election or re-election, given he broke the Somali Doctrine for the first time in Somali history (winning re-election). That was quite impressive. But election campaign promises became inconvenient to keep once elected, and now he is doubling-down on Former President Farmajo’s disdain for consensus building and working with Federal Member States. Strangely, he started governing by non-stop foreign visits without his new government in place, something even Farmajo couldn’t do. He made high profile appointments immediately after he was sworn-in. It took him more than a month to screen out able and potential candidates for efficient Cabinet. While he was busy in unilateral decision-making on Cabinet formation and foreign visits without even his foreign policy team instituted, a few things were happening:

Alshabab got bolder and deadlier;
Ethiopia stepped in to reconnect with Federal Member States;
Scramble for Miraa import from Kenya was occurring in Mogadishu among supporters and non-supporters of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu.

Since his campaign promises meant nothing now, political cynicism sets in in most Somali regions. It looks that Mohamud didn’t take advantage of popular optimism generated by the recent change of guard in Villa Somalia. Can he mend things and regain lost momentum? Some observers say that HSM’s mind on governance is already set like his predecessor, but in the case of HSM, he is a micromanager, who wouldn’t delegate even to his Prime Minister.

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HISTORY WILL ALWAYS CATCH-UP WITH SOMEONE

Neighborly Security Tension at border with Somalia

#Ethiopian army generals jet-off to #Baidoa, #Jubaland, #Somaliland;cross border security,Al-Shabaab threat top agenda https://t.co/RMqa3YjWSf It follows earlier visit led by Maj.Gen.Tesfaye in #Beledweyne,central Somalia, & signals the fast changing security dynamics in the area
— Addis Standard (@addisstandard) August 4, 2022

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH SOMALI-ETHIOPIAN RELATIONS AND AT SOMALI FRONTIER?

WDM EDITORIAL

It looks that Ethiopia is back on its past tracks to infiltrate and divide Somalis in order to weaken Somalia. In Hargeisa and elsewhere in the Federal Member States, public visits by Ethiopian security officers are being conducted. Whether it is security concern on the part of Abyi Government, given recent attacks by Al-Shabab in Southern and Eastern Ethiopian boundary line, or provocative move to destabilize President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Government for geopolitical reasons, isn’t clear yet. One thing is known – President Mohamud had close relations with Tigray Regime of Ethiopia and that is enough justification and reasoning for an African despot to get suspicious and annoyed. Tigrayan Provincial leaders were among the first to congratulate President Mohamud on his victory in the recent Somalia’s Presidential Race.

Whatever the case may be, Somalia has to mend its neighborly relations with Ethiopia. Somalia’s relationships with Ethiopia carry huge historical burden and shared cultural heritage that require careful consideration and risk management exercises. Hassan Sh. Mohamud must rise up to the occasion to improve relations with Ethiopia and outgrow Tigrayan hangover.