With opposition in disarray and Farmaajo still squattering in Villa Somalia, where do we go from here?
The expectation is that there will be a meeting soon, possibly at Mogadishu Airport vicinity, perhaps, in Halane Campound. But, this meeting between FGS and FMSs is increasingly looking like a formality, only to approve the contents of the understanding reached recently in Baydhabo by the Technical Committee on holding elections this year in Somalia.
No participation of the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) in the meeting is expected as the real players are FGS and FMSs, and rightly so because the opposition isn’t limited to only CPC, and partially because the CPC has just lost the momentum needed to stage a significant challenge to FGS, though they are still a political force to reckon with in Mogadishu.
Farmaajo, however, is under the illusion that he has won the battle with CPC, forgetting altogether that he has no formal legitimacy as president, having his mandate expired on February 8, 2021, and notoriously overstaying his stint in Villa Somalia. Nevertheless, Farmaajo has succeeded in dividing both the FMSs and opposition.This doesn’t guarantee him re-election, despite his political manipulations and resorting to survivalist instinct.The biggest loser here, in the long term, is Mr. Hussein Rooble, who has failed to show being his own man and to provide leadership despite the fact that the CPC were supposed to be his strong political card and home constituency. He has just lost his once in a lifetime chance in politics.
Puntland and Jubaland will not play a significant role in the next meetings as they are outgunned and outnumbered without the support of a meaningful opposition This is the legacy of their prolonged political self-isolationist stand.
Farmaajo can be dislodged only by the would-be New Federal Parliament 2021, which is at stake for all concerned.
Warsame Policy & Media Network (WAPMEN) 